Dated: June 15, 2025

Here are some thoughts on the price drop in some bay area locations. The conclusion: while we might see a minor drop, a major housing slowdown scenario doesn't seem to be supported by the current data. Of course, a realtor would always say that, right? Read on to see ourlogic and historical comparison.

Why did Prices Drop: Tech Stock Effect The buyer-friendly dynamic only began in April 2025. The market was relatively stable through March. The Bay Area housing market is closely tied to tech stocks (e.g., Nasdaq-100, QQQ, FNGU, SOXX), unlike much of the U.S. where interest rates have a stronger influence.

In April, tech stocks saw a significant drop.

In May and June, they rebounded sharply.

As of now, most of those losses have been erased.

What History Says We’ve seen Bay Area home prices dip before—in 2018 and 2022. Those declines were short-lived, as the economy and markets bounced back fairly quickly without deep recessions. 2009 was a totally different story. So far, the stock/economy data seems closer to 2018 and 2022 rather than 2009.

Can this change? Maybe. Predicting how the stocks/economy will perform in future is above our pay grade. We can only talk about what the current data says.

Housing market typically trails the stocks market by a few months.

If the stock market holds or rises, housing prices could begin rising again in a few months.

If the stock market drops, expect housing to soften further (but with a delayed effect).

This is all very specific to the bay area. In other markets such as Florida, interest rates play a bigger role than tech stocks.